daily forex elliott wave analysis

It’s always hard to resume trading after such market collapses, as the latter on previous Thursday: former wave counts and patterns aren’t actual anymore, especially in short-term view.

The current price position at cable shows the forming of 5-wave pattern, that is almost completed. Peculiarity of this example is that every bullish wave is shorter than the previous one. In order to prove the pattern, retracement to the downside should start before breaking 1.5 level. If this happens, it’ll change the view on wave count and would mean the continuation of wave 3.

The previous day should have been remembered, as we didn’t see such an agressive decline for a long time.

The moves of prices at different pairs were really huge. EJ made a new low @110 area, EU found its bottom at around 1.25 and GU also broke the latter mid-term minimum level and continues declining.

It’s very hard to define an Elliott scheme while such a volatile move takes place. In common, we’re seeing the beginning of a correction to that exploding decline, more detailed analysis will be posted after the weekend break.

As I’ve written in my previous entry about the cable, the variant of 3-3-3 retracement takes place now, though it seemed to me unlikely at that moment.

With red “stops” are shown extra points of this formation. By now I can’t tell for sure if the today’s minimum would become the low before the upcoming bullish move. By the way, the opportunity of the upside move is very high, as the current move has correction mode. That means our target at the upside might be 1.552 area.

Because of the possible bullish wave a question opens – if the 1.558 level holds in order not to reject our mid-term view on the cable (I’m awaiting the forming of 5th wave)?

I’m very sorry for being offline all this time (practically a week). Although, the latter parts of analysis I’ve brought before my mini-vacations are still actual, right now I’m updating the view on cable.

Starting from Apr.15, GU is declining, by now it’s at the stage of wave 5 completing. If the 5-wave scenario proves, it’ll be a strong signal for the following decline to previously determined target.

On lower TF it’s shown, that wave 5 has expanded, and the current price position is @ wave (4) of 5 level. That means short-term sells can be opened with SL 1.545 and TP 1.519.

If the price breaks the previous peak (1.545), it’ll activate 3-3-3 scenario, that is actual for the retracement moves. It can indicate the continuation of the uptrend. Though, this variant is kept in mind, but is unlikely.

In my previous entry on the cable I explained, why the scenario of break through 1.538 level is more likely. Today this idea was proved, and it’s time to discuss the nearest perspectives on GBPUSD.

On 4h chart is shown, that the latest bearish impulse hasn’t still finished. The previous upside move had 3-wave form, that is typical for corrections. That means, that the current upside wave is the last step in completing 3-3-3 formation.

GU is likely ahead of another decline, so sell orders with stops above 1.557 and targets below 1.48 may be opened.

During previous American session cable made a dynamic move to the upside, reversing practically all the previous bearish gains. The downtrend in short-term has formed 3 waves, that is enough for confirmation of the correction. But it didn’t reach even the initial Fibonacci line (as shown at 30min chart).

If the price continues to rise, breaking the previous  max level (1.532), it’ll indicate that the latter correction was actual not for the whole wave, but only for a part of it. By now the continuation of downside move is more likely, so sell orders  with SL right above 1.532 can be opened.

One more chart.
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The cable was moving during the beginning of the week together with EU to the downside. It broke the previous’ wave min level today in the morning, during the European session. That means, that the uptrend we could use at previous week has finished at least for a correction portion.

It’s hard to tell for sure, if the mid-term direction of the cable is bullish or bearish. From one point of view, the latter uptrend made a 5 wave formation, that is a strong sign of the impulse (according to the Elliott wave theory); in that case after the correction move (that should not break 1.479 level) the upside move resumes.

From the other side, GU didn’t manage to break an important 1.538 level, that I was describing in my previous posts about GBPUSD. To my mind, the current market situation, the correlation with other majors (EURUSD e.g.), Elliott theory makes the development of the uptrend scenario more likely. This idea is supported with the actual Sto indicator position (below 20).