daily forex elliott wave analysis

The previous day should have been remembered, as we didn’t see such an agressive decline for a long time.

The moves of prices at different pairs were really huge. EJ made a new low @110 area, EU found its bottom at around 1.25 and GU also broke the latter mid-term minimum level and continues declining.

It’s very hard to define an Elliott scheme while such a volatile move takes place. In common, we’re seeing the beginning of a correction to that exploding decline, more detailed analysis will be posted after the weekend break.

In fact, EU continued yesterday its downtrend without a pause. IT seems to me that now the pair managed to find its low in 1.295-1.3 area (261.8 level comparing to wave 1). Let me remember, that the current bearish move is determined as wave 5.

Maybe, the time has come to see a significant correction on EU, but it’s not clear if we’re secure from the possibility of expanding the wave.

The chart is attached.

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I’m posting a detailed wave analysis of the current downside move, as I’ve mentioned before, it seems to will have been completed in 5-wave pattern, so it’s likely that we’ll see another decline. our target might be 1.31 area (685.4 level of the common wave 5). SL is set at 1.326

The chart is attached.

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I continue analysing the current situation on EURUSD. In the latter post price action at 4H and 1H charts was described, now a view at lower TFs is posted.

EU climbed from the previous low in a 3-wave pattern. during the first trading hours today, the minimum level of wave 3 had been broken, so 2 variants of price movement is possible.

if the price holds 1.311 level, 3-3-3 retracement pattern may  be formed and the correction continues. from the other side, it’s already clear, that EURUSD, sooner or later, is going to make another low. maybe we’ll see it even without the continuation of the retracement, as the current downside move is 1. volatile and 2. seems to be formed in 5-wave pattern.

On the previous week EURUSD continued its decline and set another low in mid-term view. This decline is shown at 4H chart. It’s also depicted, that price didn’t reach even the initial Fibonacci retracement level, so it means EURUSD is continuing the forming of wave 5, that was described earlier at Daily charts.

Scaling graphic to 1 Hour, you can notice the price has completed just 3 waves during its latter downside move, right now its at the stage of the retracement (possibly it can be named as wave 4), after that we should await another low.

In the following hours I’ll post a detailed view on the current upside move of EU on  lower timeframes, so stay tuned!

2 charts are attached.

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EURUSD expanded the correction on Monday, as I wrote on 6.Apr, it broke the peak of previous 3-wave formation, so it’s going to complete soon one of the following patterns: 3-3-3 or 3-3-5.

To my mind, the second variant (3-3-5) is more likely, as price still hasn’t reached the min Fibo line of at least wave 5. It’s shown at 4H chart. Also, the price action has already confirmed wave 3 of the current upside move (as shown at 15min chart).

In short-term we would possibly see another wave of retracement wave 4, and then try to follow the 5th wave to the upside with the initial target 1.38

2 charts are attached:
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EURUSD almost reached yesterday its latter minimum level 1.326, but started to rise during American and Asian sessions.

The price has almost completed the first, 5-wave part of a possible bullish impulse, so in short-term I await a retracement move in 1.333.1-.332 area. There additional buy orders may be opened, with stops still below 1.326.