daily forex elliott wave analysis

The previous day should have been remembered, as we didn’t see such an agressive decline for a long time.

The moves of prices at different pairs were really huge. EJ made a new low @110 area, EU found its bottom at around 1.25 and GU also broke the latter mid-term minimum level and continues declining.

It’s very hard to define an Elliott scheme while such a volatile move takes place. In common, we’re seeing the beginning of a correction to that exploding decline, more detailed analysis will be posted after the weekend break.

EJ continued its downside move during the previous week and made another low @123.15. It could be a signal for the forming of wave 5.

On the smaller TFs is shown, that the latter downside move, that may form as the mentioned above wave 5, by now has only 3 parts of it. In order to prove it, price action should show another minimum (below 123 level). If EJ on the opposite side breaks 126 level, it’ll indicate the completing of a retracement pattern 3-3-3 and could lead us to the other mid-term peak (above 128).

Two charts are attached.

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The decline I was describing previously expanded yesterday, reaching another lows. Wave 3 divided into 5 parts, and the short-term upside move I mentioned earlier was just a correction to the 3rd part.

Now price has reached 423.6 Fibonacci level comparing to wave 1 length. Either it’ll start to retrace from this area, or we’ll see the continuation of downtrend till 122.5 without any significant retrace move.

Keep in mind also, that after 3 waves are formed, EJ can make another peak (above 128), correlating with the other major pairs.

The chart is attached.

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EURJPY may have started the mid-term decline

In my previous entry on EJ I explained my view on pair perspectives in mid-term. According to the thorough Elliott wave and Fibonacci lines analysis, euro vs yen is ahead another massive decline in order to complete the current wave count.

Starting from Monday, EJ price managed to go lower on 250 pips, forming the 5 wave pattern. As 5 wave formation is typical for impulses, we can have fixed the very beginning of described previously bearish move.

Right now, in short-term, the preice is going to retrace in 126.5-127 level, after then continuing its downtrend. That’s why a correction move may be used to open sell orders.

The chart is attached.

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I didn’t post entries about EURJPY for a long time, but I kept attention on this instrument.

During the previous month EJ showed a strong upside move, that I consider to count as a retracement to the previous downside gains. The description of the current model is proved with the charts.

Starting from 138.5 (made at the end of 2009), the pair continues to form wave 3, with a highly extended latter wave (that is not surprising for high timeframe). Right now the price is at the stage of forming (5) of 3, and accordingly, wave [iii] of (5). It means, that we could see at least one or two significant declines, lower than 119, in the following weeks.

Mid-term sell positions can be opened with SL above 134 level and TP below 119-120 area.

EURJPY continued its uptrend, but the 124.5 level is still not broken, the bullish momentum seems to start slowing, a detailed update will come if this level is broken at last.

Yesterday EURJPY managed to regain its previous downside step, climbing for more than 250 pips and setting up a new high @123.95.

Nevertheless, it didn’t break 124.5 level, so bearish outlook on this pair is still actual. The latter upside move has 5-wave pattern, so it can be for sure finished. One more sign of the beggining of the downtrend is volatile bearish move, that started after the max leve l was set.

Analyzing the elliott wave pattern on lower timeframes, I suggested EURJPY is forming at the moment final parts of wave 3 (in order to be completed, we have to see wave [v]).

Scalping scenario for EJ is: opening sell order with SL @123.65 and TP @122.8-122.7

Looking for a mid-term trade, you can open sell orders with initial SL @124 (previous high), and following @124.5 (the top of wave 2 at 1 Hour chart). Final target is seen in 119.6 area.

3 charts are attached.

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