daily forex elliott wave analysis

It’s always hard to resume trading after such market collapses, as the latter on previous Thursday: former wave counts and patterns aren’t actual anymore, especially in short-term view.

The current price position at cable shows the forming of 5-wave pattern, that is almost completed. Peculiarity of this example is that every bullish wave is shorter than the previous one. In order to prove the pattern, retracement to the downside should start before breaking 1.5 level. If this happens, it’ll change the view on wave count and would mean the continuation of wave 3.

The previous day should have been remembered, as we didn’t see such an agressive decline for a long time.

The moves of prices at different pairs were really huge. EJ made a new low @110 area, EU found its bottom at around 1.25 and GU also broke the latter mid-term minimum level and continues declining.

It’s very hard to define an Elliott scheme while such a volatile move takes place. In common, we’re seeing the beginning of a correction to that exploding decline, more detailed analysis will be posted after the weekend break.

In fact, EU continued yesterday its downtrend without a pause. IT seems to me that now the pair managed to find its low in 1.295-1.3 area (261.8 level comparing to wave 1). Let me remember, that the current bearish move is determined as wave 5.

Maybe, the time has come to see a significant correction on EU, but it’s not clear if we’re secure from the possibility of expanding the wave.

The chart is attached.

Read the rest of this entry »

As I’ve written in my previous entry about the cable, the variant of 3-3-3 retracement takes place now, though it seemed to me unlikely at that moment.

With red “stops” are shown extra points of this formation. By now I can’t tell for sure if the today’s minimum would become the low before the upcoming bullish move. By the way, the opportunity of the upside move is very high, as the current move has correction mode. That means our target at the upside might be 1.552 area.

Because of the possible bullish wave a question opens – if the 1.558 level holds in order not to reject our mid-term view on the cable (I’m awaiting the forming of 5th wave)?

I’m posting a detailed wave analysis of the current downside move, as I’ve mentioned before, it seems to will have been completed in 5-wave pattern, so it’s likely that we’ll see another decline. our target might be 1.31 area (685.4 level of the common wave 5). SL is set at 1.326

The chart is attached.

Read the rest of this entry »

I continue analysing the current situation on EURUSD. In the latter post price action at 4H and 1H charts was described, now a view at lower TFs is posted.

EU climbed from the previous low in a 3-wave pattern. during the first trading hours today, the minimum level of wave 3 had been broken, so 2 variants of price movement is possible.

if the price holds 1.311 level, 3-3-3 retracement pattern may  be formed and the correction continues. from the other side, it’s already clear, that EURUSD, sooner or later, is going to make another low. maybe we’ll see it even without the continuation of the retracement, as the current downside move is 1. volatile and 2. seems to be formed in 5-wave pattern.

On the previous week EURUSD continued its decline and set another low in mid-term view. This decline is shown at 4H chart. It’s also depicted, that price didn’t reach even the initial Fibonacci retracement level, so it means EURUSD is continuing the forming of wave 5, that was described earlier at Daily charts.

Scaling graphic to 1 Hour, you can notice the price has completed just 3 waves during its latter downside move, right now its at the stage of the retracement (possibly it can be named as wave 4), after that we should await another low.

In the following hours I’ll post a detailed view on the current upside move of EU on  lower timeframes, so stay tuned!

2 charts are attached.

Read the rest of this entry »